| The Black Swan by Nassim Nicholas Taleb is | | | | As examples of Black Swans, Taleb offers events |
| appropriately subtitled The Impact of the Highly | | | | such as these to remind us that what we don't know |
| Improbable. Taleb chose this bird-centric title because | | | | can be far more relevant than what we do know: |
| until Dutch explorer Willem de Vlamingh arrived in | | | | - The internal combustion engine |
| Australia in 1697 and encountered black swans, | | | | - World Wars I and II |
| Europe believed that all swans were white. His | | | | - The Cuban Revolution |
| discovery forced Europeans to revise what had been | | | | - The personal computer |
| an obvious and accepted belief. Taleb's title reminds | | | | - 1990's internet stock bubble |
| readers that just because you have never seen a | | | | - The Harry Potter phenomenon, which turned a |
| black swan, doesn't mean that there are no black | | | | mother on welfare into a billionaire |
| swans. | | | | - 9/11 |
| It takes an unusual thinker to write a best-selling book | | | | Taleb is surprisingly positive about America's place in |
| predicated on the head-scratching concept that unlikely | | | | the global economy, and writes: "It so happens that |
| events seem impossible when they lie in the unknown | | | | America is currently far, far more creative than (older) |
| or in the future, but after they occur, become a part of | | | | nations of museum-goers and equation solvers. It is |
| our readily-accepted reality. Taleb has both the | | | | also far more tolerant of bottom-up tinkering and |
| personal and professional credentials to delve into such | | | | undirected trial and error. And globalization has allowed |
| a premise. | | | | the United States to specialize in the creative aspect |
| Born in Lebanon in 1960, he holds a master's in | | | | of things, the production of concepts and ideas. There |
| business administration from Wharton, a Ph.D. from the | | | | is more money in designing a shoe than in actually |
| University of Paris and is serving as the Dean's | | | | making it: Nike, Dell, and Boeing can get paid for just |
| Professor in the Sciences of Uncertainty at the | | | | thinking, organizing and leveraging their know-how and |
| University of Massachusetts at Amherst. Taleb was | | | | ideas while subcontracted factories in developing |
| founder of Empirica LLC, a corporation with interests in | | | | countries do the grunt work, and engineers in cultured |
| hedge funds and a research laboratory in London. At | | | | and mathematical states do the noncreative technical |
| 25, he became chief currency derivatives trader for | | | | grind. The American economy has leveraged itself |
| Banque Indosuez, and has also served as a managing | | | | heavily on the idea generation, which explains why |
| director and head trader at Union Bank of Switzerland. | | | | losing manufacturing jobs can be coupled with a rising |
| In Taleb's words, "It is easy to see that life is the | | | | standard of living." |
| cumulative effect of a handful of significant shocks. It is | | | | According to Taleb, unlike earlier cultures, Americans |
| not so hard to identify the role of Black Swans from | | | | haven't learned to be afraid of failure. We're willing to |
| your armchair ... Look into your own existence, count | | | | trade the possibility of failure for the chance at a big |
| the significant events, the technological changes, and | | | | upside. |
| the inventions that have taken place in our environment | | | | Bucking the conventional wisdom of most business |
| since you were born and compare them to what was | | | | books, The Black Swan suggests that whatever |
| expected before their advent. Look into your own | | | | future success we may enjoy will most likely have |
| personal life, to your choice of profession, say, or | | | | more to do with unexpected factors than with precise |
| meeting your mate. How often did these things occur | | | | planning and prediction of outcomes. |
| according to plan?" | | | | |